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CrescentRating
Global Muslim Travel Intelligence System

The future of Muslim travel will be won by trust.

Mastercard – CrescentRating Global Muslim Travel Index 2026
18 June 2026
Fazal Bahardeen
CEO, CrescentRating & HalalTrip
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights1 / 11
The Intelligence Layer

Twelve years of co-innovation built the global intelligence layer for Muslim travel.

0
Years
A long-term evidence infrastructure for Muslim travel demand
0
Edition
from destination benchmarking to live market intelligence
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights2 / 18
The Research Foundation

Mastercard & CrescentRating — a decade of evidence into the Muslim Lifestyle Market.

30+ research reports across five dimensions, built since 2013.

Consumers
Consumers
  • [>]Muslim Women in Travel 2026
  • [>]Indonesia Muslim Brand Engagement 2025
  • [>]Malaysia Muslim Brand Engagement 2025
  • [>]Muslim-Friendly Cruise 2024
  • [>]Muslim Gen Z Travel 2023
  • [>]Muslim Women in Travel 2019
  • [>]Digital Muslim Travel 2018
  • [>]Muslim Millennial Travel 2017
Industries
Industries
  • [>]Halal Food Lifestyle Indonesia 2021
  • [>]Halal Food Lifestyle Singapore 2021
  • [>]Muslim Travel Shopping Index 2015
GMTI
Global Muslim Travel Index
  • GMTI 2026
  • GMTI 2025
  • GMTI 2024
  • GMTI 2023
  • GMTI 2022
  • GMTI 2021
  • GMTI 2019
  • GMTI 2018
  • GMTI 2017
  • GMTI 2016
  • GMTI 2015
GMTI
Countries
Countries
  • [>]Indonesia Muslim Travel Index 2025
  • [>]Indonesia Muslim Travel Index 2023
  • [>]Indonesia Muslim Travel Index 2019
  • [>]Indonesia Muslim Travel Index 2018
  • [>]Japan Muslim Travel Index 2017
Trends
Trends
  • [>]Halal Travel Trends 2026
  • [>]Halal Travel Trends 2025
  • [>]Ramadan & Eid Lifestyle 2022
  • [>]Travel Readiness 2020
  • [>]Halal Travel Frontier 2020
  • [>]Halal Travel Frontier 2019
  • [>]Halal Travel Frontier 2018
0
Years of Co-innovation
0
Research Reports Published
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights3 / 18
Market Signal

The market is not emerging. It is compounding.

2.19 Billion
2026 · 2.22 Bn
2035 · 2.57 Bn

The global Muslim population climbs from 2.19 billion in 2025 to 2.57 billion by 2035 — a structural demand engine behind the next decade of travel growth.

0%
Global Population Share by 2036
Under-40 · 2026
70%
Under-40 · 2036
67%

A still-young base as Gen Z & Millennials reach peak travel spend. Source: Mastercard-CrescentRating GMTI 2026.

GMTI 2026 — Key Insights3 / 11
Model Recalibration

The recovery is no longer catching up. It is revising the future upward.

International Muslim Visitor Arrivals
Previous Market Baseline
2025 Muslim International Arrivals
186M
2030 Muslim International Arrivals
245M
+10M
+47M
GMTI 2026 Recalibrated Reality
2026 Muslim International Arrivals
0M
2030 Projected Muslim International Arrivals
0M
2030 Horizon Projected Spend Signal USD 0 Billion

Source: Mastercard-CrescentRating GMTI 2026 (revised 2026 projections).

GMTI 2026 — Key Insights4 / 11
Distributed Demand

Muslim outbound travel is becoming less concentrated and harder to win with old playbooks.

Concentrated Origin Set · 2019
~30 countries
drove 99% of Muslim outbound volume.
New origin nodes coming online · 2019 → 2026
Distributed Opportunity Map · 2026
~40 countries
now drive 95% of Muslim outbound volume.

Source: Mastercard-CrescentRating GMTI 2026 outbound-origin analysis.

GMTI 2026 — Key Insights5 / 11
Traveler Signal

Intent is now a leading signal, not a lagging observation.
MTIT scans the demand horizon before arrivals appear in the data

Signal 01 · Friction Enters the Window
Near-term intent is sensitive to volatility, airspace disruption, and price confidence.
Signal 02 · Demand Remains Intact
The 3–6 and 6–12 month windows show that hesitation is tactical, not structural.
MTIT separates temporary caution from durable travel intent before arrivals appear in the data.
MTIT Demand Radar · Jan–Aug 2026
Apr Window (0–3 mo) Mid Horizon (3–6 mo) Long Horizon (6–12 mo)
High Mid Low Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug ▼ Apr dip Long ▲
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights6 / 16
Volatility Matrix

Destinations are now operating inside a volatility matrix.

Macro Context
Energy & Transit Catalyst
Structural Risk
Chokepoint Vulnerability
Acute Trigger
The Strait of Hormuz Shock
Economic Pressure
Discretionary Budget Contraction
← Geopolitical Climate Stabilized High Volatility →
Expansion ↑ ↓ Stagnation
Scenario A · Return to Growth
Strong economics meet stabilized geopolitics. Outbound confidence and luxury spending flourish.
Scenario B · Volatile Corridors
Robust economics undercut by instability. Visa flux and advisories trigger rapid corridor re-routing.
Scenario C · Fragile Peace
Weak economics with stable geopolitics. Flows contract into value-driven, shorter regional journeys.
Scenario D · Perfect Storm
Recession meets deep conflict. Demand retreats to hyper-safe, politically insulated destinations.
Macro Performance: Expansion (top) / Stagnation (bottom) Geopolitical: Stabilized ← → High Volatility
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights8 / 18
Risk Signal

Travel flows are being reshaped by friction, safety perception, and visible inclusion.

⚠Confidence Re-Routing Signals
01Geopolitical Barriers

Volatile air corridors and rapid destination re-routing.

02Economic Compression

Cost-of-living adjustments and value-driven prioritization.

03Social Friction

Rising Islamophobia and anti-Muslim rhetoric in some markets.

GMTI 2026 — Key Insights7 / 15
Readiness Language

From measurement to activation: the operating language of destination readiness.

ACES
Access · Communication · Environment · Services
Measures Readiness
RIDA
Responsible · Immersive · Digital · Assured
Designs Future Experiences
TRUST
The validation & credibility protocol
Proves Confidence
PAINS
The friction-identification matrix
Finds Drop-Off Points
4Cs
The market-context engine
Reads Behavior
UDAS
The integrated activation stack that converts insight into destination action
Activates the System
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights6 / 11
Destination Activation Engine

UDAS — the Universal Destination Activation Stack.

UDAS converts insight into destination readiness: ACES measures the infrastructure base, RIDA designs future-ready experiences, and TRUST proves confidence at the booking moment.

Press → to deploy the stack
ACES
Readiness Infrastructure
AccessCommunicationEnvironmentServices
RIDA
Experience Design
ResponsibleImmersiveDigitalAssured
TRUST
Proof at Booking
TransparencyRelevanceUser ExperienceSocial ConnectionThoughtful Rewards
UDAS
Universal Destination Activation Stack
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights7 / 11
Traveler Evolution

The Muslim traveler is no longer one segment. Demand is fragmenting into high-value states.

Muslim Women in Travel 2026
90M
strong — driving 48% of total international arrival allocations globally.
  • Safety is the decisive factor for 60%
  • Trust & transparency for a further 30%
Muslim Sports Tourism 2026
$21B
projected segment value by 2030 as events build faith-readiness.
  • 23.5% spend lift through event faith-readiness
  • Prayer, halal catering & family zones as standard
Halal Travel Trends 2026
ZERO
FRICTION
  • Autonomous Partners: AI agents verifying faith-based needs in real time.
  • Scalable Assurance: Biometric ecosystems making trust machine-readable.
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights8 / 11
Agentic Decision Flow

The next traveler will not search harder. They will choose faster.

Decision Compression Tunnel
Discover
Where can I go?
Verify
Can I trust it?
Book
Is the journey assured?
AI
travel
agent
Machine-readable confidence
Search collapses into a trusted recommendation.
Halal assurance, safety, value, route stability, and booking proof converge into one decision moment.
0%trust AI-recommended choices
0%conversion spike on machine-readable signals
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights12 / 17
Meaning Signal

As planning becomes automated, meaning becomes more important.

Motivation
The "Whycation" Movement

Under-40 travelers choose destinations for what the journey means, not just where they go. Faith-alignment, ancestral roots, and deep personal reflection become the primary organizing logic of trip design.

Logistics
Transit Transformation (8–24 hrs)

Streamlined transit ecosystems transform simple airport layovers into purposeful cultural extensions — delivering curated, value-driven micro-tours before wheels-down.

Zero Friction
The "Umrah Plus" Benchmark

The definitive operational model for merging spiritual pilgrimage with immersive leisure itineraries, turning transit corridors into holistic, high-value traveler experiences.

GMTI 2026 — Key Insights13 / 17
Geographic Power Shift

Asia is becoming the structural safe-haven of Muslim travel growth.

✈ ✈ ✈ ASIA SAFE-HAVEN CORRIDOR S.Europe Volatile corridor ROUTE DISRUPTED W.Asia → Rerouting via SE Asia
ASIA · 128M ARRIVALS
Volatile long-haul corridorsTrust-dense regional corridors
Center of Gravity
Nearly 128M
Muslim arrivals anchored by deep regional corridors and pervasive faith ecosystems.
65%of global Muslim arrivals
20.8%market penetration
Anchored by deep regional corridors and pervasive faith ecosystems.

Source: Mastercard-CrescentRating GMTI 2026 expert panel & arrivals data.

GMTI 2026 — Key Insights14 / 17
The Trust Deficit.

Facilities are commoditized.
Trust is now the differentiator.
FROM
"Do you have prayer rooms?"
TO
"Can I trust the entire journey?"
UDAS
Universal Destination Activation Stack
A system for converting Muslim traveler expectations into operational readiness.
Measure
ACES establishes the readiness baseline.
Access, communication, environment, and services become measurable signals.
Design
RIDA aligns the experience with future demand.
Responsible, immersive, digital, and assured journeys become the design brief.
Prove
TRUST makes readiness visible before booking.
The destination moves from providing facilities to earning confidence.
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights17 / 18
Readiness Signal · Global Rankings

GMTI 2026 reveals who is ready for the next phase of Muslim travel.

#1
Malaysia
Score 82 · +3 — extends its lead
▲3
Indonesia
Surges into rank-2 tie at 79
#2
Saudi Arabia
Holds in the rank-2 tie at 79 · consistent performer
▲1
Türkiye
Holds rank-2 at 79 · score up +1 · infrastructure gains
RankDestinationScoreΔ RankΔ Score
1Malaysia #1820+3
2Indonesia ▲79+3+3
2Saudi Arabia790−1
2Türkiye790+1
5Qatar7600
6United Arab Emirates75−4−3
7Bahrain ▲74+5—
7Iran74+2—
7Kuwait740—

Source: Mastercard-CrescentRating GMTI 2026 (Top 20 — leaders shown). Rank/score change vs 2025.

GMTI 2026 — Key Insights13 / 15
Trust Infrastructure · Non-OIC

In non-OIC destinations, visible trust is the competitive advantage.

Destinations to Watch · 2026
▲2
Hong Kong
Rank #2 · Score 64 · Strong infrastructure gains
▲1
Taiwan
Rank #3 · Score 59 · Consistent upward momentum
▲1
Thailand
Rank #5 · Score 58 · Halal tourism investment pays off
▲5
Philippines
Rank #5 · Score 58 · Fastest riser in the non-OIC field
▲1
Spain
Rank #7 · Score 53 · Mediterranean safe-haven positioning

Source: Mastercard-CrescentRating GMTI 2026. Hover a row to highlight.

#DestinationGMTIScoreΔ '25
1Singapore Top non-OIC1172+1
2Hong Kong2064+2
3United Kingdom2559−4
3Taiwan2559+1
5Thailand2758+1
5Philippines ▲2758+5
7Germany—53+1
7Spain—53+1
7Japan—53+2

Source: Mastercard-CrescentRating GMTI 2026. Change vs 2025.

GMTI 2026 — Key Insights16 / 17
CrescentRating
Muslim Women in Travel
2026
Mastercard · CrescentRating
Global Muslim Travel Index
2026
CrescentRating · HalalTrip
Halal Travel Trends
2026

The GMTI 2026 intelligence layer is live.

150 destinations indexedActive
OIC rankings activeOnline
Non-OIC rankings activeOnline
Destination portal liveOpen
Scan for real-time interactive data portal access ●
Fazal Bahardeen · CEO, CrescentRating & HalalTrip
crescentrating.com · halaltrip.com
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights11 / 11