Mastercard – CrescentRating Global Muslim Travel Index 2026
18 June 2026
Fazal Bahardeen
CEO, CrescentRating & HalalTrip
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights1 / 11
The Intelligence Layer
Twelve years of co-innovation built the global intelligence layer for Muslim travel.
0
Years
A long-term evidence infrastructure for Muslim travel demand
0
Edition
from destination benchmarking to live market intelligence
0
joint reports published
0
academic citations
0
news media mentions
0
direct downloads
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights2 / 18
Market Signal
The market is not emerging. It is compounding.
2.22Billion
2026 · 2.22 Bn
2036 · 2.57 Bn
The global Muslim population climbs from 2.22 billion in 2026 to 2.57 billion by 2036 — nearly 29% of humanity, a structural demand engine behind the next decade of travel growth.
0%
Global Population Share by 2036
Under-40 · 2026
71%
Under-40 · 2036
68%
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights3 / 11
Model Recalibration
The recovery is no longer catching up. It is revising the future upward.
International Muslim Visitor Arrivals
Previous Market Baseline
2025 Projected Arrivals (prior model)
186M
2030 Projected Arrivals (prior model)
245M
+10M
+17M
GMTI 2026 Recalibrated Reality
2025 Actual Arrivals · +11.3% YoY
0M
2030 Projected Muslim International Arrivals
0M
On track for 20260Mprojected arrivals2030 Horizon Projected Spend SignalUSD 0 Billion
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights4 / 11
Distributed Demand
Muslim outbound travel is becoming less concentrated and harder to win with old playbooks.
Concentrated Origin Set · 2019
88%
of Muslim outbound volume came from just the top 30 source markets.
New origin nodes coming online · 2019 → 2026
Distributed Opportunity Map · 2026
77%
top-30 share today — nearly 1 in 4 outbound trips now flows from emerging & diaspora markets.
Diaspora communities across Europe, North America & East Asia are now visible outbound contributors.
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights5 / 11
Traveler Signal
Intent is now a leading signal, not a lagging observation. Muslim Travel Intent Tracker (MTIT) scans the demand horizon
Signal 01 · Friction Enters the Window
Near-term intent is sensitive to volatility, airspace disruption, and price confidence.
Signal 02 · Demand Remains Intact
The 4–6 and 7–12 month windows show that hesitation is tactical, not structural — backed by 60 months of continuous tracking.
MTIT separates temporary caution from durable travel intent before arrivals appear in the data.
From measurement to activation: the operating language of destination readiness.
ACES
Access · Communication · Environment · Services
Measures Readiness
RIDA
Responsible · Immersive · Digital · Assured
Designs Future Experiences
TRUST
The validation & credibility protocol
Proves Confidence
GPM
Performance matrix — Trailblazers to Untapped Potential
Stratifies 150 Destinations
MTIT
Muslim Travel Intent Tracker — 60 months of live signals
Predicts Demand
Destination Activation Stack
The integrated stack that converts insight into destination action
Activates the System
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights6 / 11
Destination Activation Engine
The Destination Activation Stack.
The stack transforms raw assets into future-proof advantage: ACES — the infrastructure envelope built on 60+ datasets, RIDA — the experience filter that curates value, and TRUST — the catalyst that eliminates intention-to-booking leakage.
GMTI 2026 reveals who is ready for the next phase of Muslim travel.
#1
Malaysia
Score 83 · +4 — extends its decade-long lead
▲3
Indonesia
Surges into the rank #2 tie at 79
#2
Saudi Arabia
Holds in the rank #2 tie at 79 · consistent performer
▲1
Türkiye
Holds rank #2 at 79 · score up +1 · infrastructure gains
Rank
Destination
Score
Δ Rank
Δ Score
1
Malaysia #1
83
0
+4
2
Indonesia ▲
79
+3
+3
2
Saudi Arabia
79
0
−1
2
Türkiye
79
0
+1
5
Qatar
76
0
0
6
United Arab Emirates
75
−4
−3
7
Bahrain ▲
74
+5
+4
7
Iran
74
+2
+1
7
Kuwait
74
0
0
10
Oman
73
−3
−1
10
Singapore Top non-OIC
73
+1
+2
Source: Mastercard-CrescentRating GMTI 2026 (Top 10 of 150 shown). Rank/score change vs 2025. *Scores evaluated before the conflict in the Middle East.
GMTI 2026 — Key Insights13 / 15
Trust Infrastructure · Non-OIC
In non-OIC destinations, visible trust is the competitive advantage.
Destinations to Watch · 2026
▲2
Hong Kong
Rank #2 · Score 64 · Strong infrastructure gains
▲1
Taiwan
Rank #3 · Score 59 · Consistent upward momentum
+5
Philippines
Rank #5 · Score 58 · Single highest score surge in the field
